first_imgA fire has destroyed a house on the outskirts of Glenties.The fire broke out last night just after 8pm.Members of the fire service from Glenties and Killybegs as well as the ambulance service responded to the emergency call. One man was treated at the scene but did not require hospital treatment.Gardai are investigating the cause of the blaze.MAN ESCAPES AFTER FIRE DESTROYS HOUSE IN GLENTIES was last modified: December 15th, 2013 by StephenShare this:Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window)Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window)Click to share on LinkedIn (Opens in new window)Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window)Click to share on Pocket (Opens in new window)Click to share on Telegram (Opens in new window)Click to share on WhatsApp (Opens in new window)Click to share on Skype (Opens in new window)Click to print (Opens in new window) Tags:fireGlentieslast_img read more

The DTI spotlights small tech businesses

first_img“The opening of the first incubator in the DTI programme is a significant milestone in the effort to create and sustain jobs in South Africa,” trade and industry minister Rob Davies said. MEDO CEO Judi Sandrock said the incubator will unfold world-class technology, teleconferencing facilities, a TV studio and a space in the rejuvenated city of Joburg.Judi Sandrock, Medo CEO, Yvonne Phosa, Mpumalanga MEC for economic development, Rob Davies, the minister of trade and industry, and Michael Masutha, the deputy minister of science and technology, open the Medo Youth ICT. The Department of Trade and Industry has launched the Youth Enterprise Development Strategy that aims to promote youth self-employment and youth-owned and managed enterprises.(Images: Melissa Jane Cook)MEDIA CONTACTS• Michelle Samraj PR and Events AssistantThe Lime Envelope+27 11 467 8998RELATED ARTICLES• New technology hub for Braamfontein • Cape Town: city of innovation • Mobile technology for Africa • More broadband for South Africa • Infrastructure development in South AfricaMelissa Jane CookOpened by the Department of Trade and Industry Minister Rob Davies on 11 November 2013, the MEDO Information Communication and Technology Incubator is the first youth incubator in the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) Incubator Support Programme. The Micro Enterprise Development Organisation (Medo) will manage the programme, and provide training and support for participating entrepreneurs.Medo connects small South African businesses with large companies to build supplier relationships and boost broad-based black economic empowerment credentials.The DTI launched the Incubator Support Programme (ISP) to provide support for and grow small businesses across industry sectors.“By promoting the incubators, the DTI has been encouraging private sector partnerships with government to support the programme in an effort to develop effective businesses,” said Jeffrey Ndumo, chief drector of the DTI.“In May this year, Medo was awarded the first two incubators in the country and, as of now, is the ICT industry’s very first sector entrepreneur incubator.”Medo chief executive officer, Judi Sandrock said: “The Medo ICT Incubator, based in the Maboneng District, will focus on supporting young entrepreneurs. The location was chosen to leverage high-speed fibre bandwidth connectivity as the focus of the incubator is the information and communication technology sector, as well as an internet TV studio that will facilitate internet TV broadcast.”She added that the incubator will unfold world-class technology, teleconferencing facilities, a TV studio and a new rejuvenated space in Joburg. Further, the incubator will provide free services, such as access to internet, telephones and meeting and teleconference rooms, for to up to 300 small- to medium-sized businesses.“There will be permanent incubation of approximately 20 ICT businesses and virtual incubation across industries allowing small businesses to use the facilities and benefit from the full suite of shared services. Introductions to supply chains of large industry and entrepreneurs looking to develop content for IP TV (Internet based television) will also become beneficiaries of this programme.“This is a very exciting time for smaller and medium-sized enterprise growth in South Africa and MEDO is very pleased to be working with the dti on such an innovative development. The Medo ICT Incubation Centre is a phenomenal step in building economic growth and job creation in the country.”Collaborative citizenry for job creationMedo will shortly launch another incubator, focusing on the mining and heavy industries sectors. This programme will provide training and support for smaller businesses in these sectors.“The opening of the first youth incubator in the DTI programme is a significant milestone in the effort to create and sustain jobs in South Africa, adding value to the growth of business and entrepreneurship in South Africa,” said Davies.The minister said the country needs a “collaborative citizenry” to develop youth initiatives to combat high unemployment.“The roll-out of the incubation support programme is an important dimension. The main touchstone of all economic policies is youth unemployment. The fundamental problems of unemployment are structural and we need opportunities for productivity in the economy.”“There is a youth bulge and more and more young people are entering the job market each year. There needs to be intervention by government – holistic, comprehensive responses to the youth. South African society needs to see an increased contribution of youth entrepreneurship to the GDP (gross domestic product) and an increase in youth-owned start-ups.”The DTI Youth Directorate has developed a 10-pillar strategy to help reduce youth unemployment. It includes:Business incubation for young entrepreneursA support centre for youth-owned businessesCompetitions and awards for young entrepreneursSector-specific youth catalytic projectsA national youth services programmeA “Take a young person” to work programmeA youth entrepreneur collateral fundYouth enterprise data and research programmesAn entrepreneurship coaching and mentorship programmeBusiness development support servicesThe Medo philosophy is “building the economy one job at a time”. Since November 2011 the organisation’s mobile entrepreneurship centre, Treppie, has helped more than 17 000 potential entrepreneurs.The organisation has delivered its one-day business opportunity identification workshop to 1 800 budding entrepreneurs across the country and supported more than 600 black business owners through its enterprise and supplier development programmes in the mining, manufacturing and hospitality industries.The group’s research shows that 61% of those benefitting from its programme are younger than 35.“In 2014 we will be opening 19 incubators across South Africa, starting with a mining industry incubator in Middelburg,” said Sandrock. “This incubator will be jointly sponsored by the DTI, BHP Billiton Coal and Hatch Goba. These 19 incubators will serve the mining, manufacturing, energy, ICT and hospitality industries.”Davies said the government is trying to bring about a major change, a shift in business in South Africa.“We are in a space of change – fast-paced technology. The opening of Medo is a milestone in incubation. There will be many more of these and hopefully they will crack the burden of youth unemployment.”last_img read more

Twitter “Fail Whale” Artist Now Selling Stickers and Wall Art

first_imgTags:#twitter#web Do you know about the Twitter “fail whale?” Of course you do – it’s the iconic image that displays whenever the microblogging social network takes a nose dive. What many do not know, however, is that the so-called “Fail Whale” wasn’t a creation from Twitter itself to decorate their startup’s “uh-oh” page, but actually the work of an unknown artist, Yiying Lu, whose image was posted for use at a stock photo site. Of course, Lu isn’t all that unknown anymore, as her fail whale was soon embraced by the community and turned into a social object. And now that object can decorate your computer or even your walls, thanks to new Twitter art from Lu herself. The “fail whale” is just one of many new wall graphics now available at There are also images of an owl, an elephant, trees and even a very Twitter-like bird, among others, all of which are offered in sizes that range from laptop-sized to wall-to-ceiling prints up to 7-feet tall. (What better way for a blogger to decorate their home office, we ask?) Facebook is Becoming Less Personal and More Pro… Guide to Performing Bulk Email Verification The Dos and Don’ts of Brand Awareness Videos Prices start at $14.95 for the laptop-sized graphics and go up to $149.95 for the giant wall art. In a recent interview with the artist on the LTLprints blog, it’s mentioned that Shanghai-born Lu has also done creative work for Anna Sui New York, Maybelline, GettyImages, Glam Media, JWT, the Surfrider Foundation, the University of Technology Sydney, McCann World Group and LTLPrints itself. However, for many of us tech geeks, none is more memorable than that of the Fail Whale. Related Posts sarah perez A Comprehensive Guide to a Content Auditlast_img read more

F is for Family: Keeping Families on the Front Line of their Child’s Intervention Services

first_imgBy Kimberly HileJustin with LEGO Mac by Edward Liu, Flickr CC BY-NC 2.0, Obtained 6-13-2016Families entering the “world” of early intervention or early childhood special education do so under a wide variety of circumstances. For some, this may be their first time as a parent; therefore they may have limited awareness of the supports available for their family. Others may have walked through a similar journey before and understand their role in the process. Still others may come from a place of uncertainty or even resistance to accepting the fact that their family story may follow a different path than what they initially envisioned.Regardless of where a family is coming from, every family deserves, and has a right, to be fully included and play a primary role in their child’s intervention services. In order for early childhood professionals to serve as effective partners, they need a solid understanding of how to view each family in light of their current circumstances. Professionals need the tools to meet each family “where they are” while striving to actively involve family members in the manner in which they are comfortable being engaged.On June 23, 2016, Dr. Carol Trivette from East Tennessee State University will present the second part of a linked-series of family-centered webinars.  This upcoming webinar is entitled, Engaging Families to Focus on Intervention Strategies. The session will highlight effective strategies for increasing parent engagement within their child’s intervention services. Dr. Trivette is an internationally known leader in the field when it comes to building a family’s confidence and competence. Her presentation will focus on how to accomplish this very important goal by highlighting the DEC Recommended Practices related to supporting families.Family practices encompass three themes:Family-centered practices: Practices that treat families with dignity and respect; are individualized, flexible, and responsive to each family’s unique circumstances;; provide family members complete and unbiased information to make informed decisions; and involve family members in acting on choices to strengthen child, parent, and family functioning.Family capacity-building practices: Practices that include the participatory opportunities and experiences afforded to families to strengthen existing parenting knowledge and skills and promote the development of new parenting abilities that enhance parenting self-efficacy beliefs and practices.Family and professional collaboration: Practices that build relationships between families and professionals who work together to achieve mutually agreed upon outcomes and goals that promote family competencies and support the development of the child.We will host our second Lunch & Learn (L&L) on June 29, 2016, as a follow-up to Dr. Trivette’s webinar. During the interactive L&L, you will be invited to share personal triumphs and challenges pertaining to your work with families. Meeting families “where they are” and knowing how to actively engage them is a vital piece of the puzzle within the world of early intervention and early childhood special education. We are excited to have Dr. Trivette share her knowledge on June 23 and invite you to share yours during our Lunch & Learn on June 29.This post was edited by Robyn DiPietro-Wells & Michaelene Ostrosky, PhD, members of the MFLN FD Early Intervention team, which aims to support the development of professionals working with military families. Find out more about the Military Families Learning Network FD concentration on our website, on Facebook, on Twitter, and YouTube.last_img read more

Seth Godin on Customer Attraction, Brand Loyalty, and His Own Writing Process – Episode #101

first_imgPodcast: Play in new window | Download (Duration: 34:44 — 27.9MB)Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Android | Email | Google Podcasts | RSSNobody in the online marketing space or sales world needs an introduction to Seth Godin. Seth has become synonymous with content marketing and the new approach to customer attraction he calls permission marketing. He believes that because of the negative perceptions people have about marketing and sales and because of how people function these days, no entrepreneur or business should be out chasing customers in that old-style way that causes pressure and discomfort. In this great conversation, Seth discusses why customer attraction is so powerful and explains what brands can do to create a great customer attraction approach, which solves every other problem by default.Seth Godin on Customer Attraction, Brand Loyalty, and His Own Writing Process – Ep 102Click To TweetIf you have customer attraction you don’t need to raise capital and technology will never be an issueImagine if your company was one of those brands that seemed to automatically attract customers because of your culture, your values, or your vibe. What would that do for your opportunities and potential for success? Seth Godin insists that client attraction is THE thing – it’s what makes every company that is successful, successful and it’s what makes every other problem in business less of a problem. In this conversation Seth and Anthony discuss some of the things required to attract customers like that, so don’t miss this sage advice from two guys who have put a lot of thought into the issue.Brand loyalty is declining because brands have not kept their part of the bargain ~ Seth GodinThere is a decent amount of talk in marketing and sales circles about the decline of brand loyalty. When asked whether it’s true, Seth Godin says that it is and that the main cause is that brands have not kept their part of the bargain. It’s easy to SAY your brand will be something specific for your customers but to actually pull it off requires a kind of thought, intentionality, and consistency that most brand leaders have not dedicated enough time to. Seth has some insight into how that sort of backsliding on your brand promise happens and what you can do to regain ground, so be sure you hear this episode of In The Arena.Brand Loyalty is declining because brands have not kept their part of the bargain ~ Seth GodinClick To TweetFailure isn’t that big of a deal, so don’t take yourself so seriously. If you are honest and do good work, you’ll get another chance ~ Seth GodinMost of us regret our failures on some level. But the failure doesn’t have to be the final word if we are about more than success or failure. Seth Godin says that the entrepreneurs and creators that truly make a difference are the ones who are honest and do good work that truly benefits people. A person or brand with that kind of character deeply ingrained will always recover from mistakes and find new opportunities on the other side. That’s the reality he’s seen over and over as he’s worked with founders, creators, and students and is a place from which you can draw hope the next time you fail.Why Seth Godin doesn’t like to talk about his writing processAs one who writes every day, Anthony was especially curious how Seth Godin, another person who writes every day and has written many books, approaches writing as a practice. Seth said that he feels that revealing his writing approach would not serve others well simply because we all tend to take on the practices of those we admire rather than discover and develop our own unique approach that fits the way we are wired. In his mind, anyone who can verbally communicate can write. The challenge is learning to write the way you speak – naturally, with emphasis and passion, and with clarity that is truly helpful to those listening (reading). Though Seth didn’t reveal his “magic formula” for effective and prolific writing, what he does share about the realities of writing is very helpful. Don’t miss it.Why Seth Godin doesn’t like to talk about his writing processClick To TweetOutline of this great episode Why Seth Godin needs no introduction… here he is Seth’s description of himself during high school Why Seth doesn’t like to talk about his writing process The point Seth is driving home when telling his personal failure stories Why are entrepreneurs drawn to the transactional side instead of the exceptional side? How customer attraction trumps everything for entrepreneurs Why brand loyalty is declining and how small companies can capitalize on the trend Seth’s explanation of the mindset young people need to have in our present day How to help people do something – get them started with small things What is a book? It’s a tool, nothing moreResources & Links mentioned in this episodeSeth Godin on the webSeth’s Alt-MBA CourseSeth’s Marketing SeminarBOOK: What to Do When It’s Your TurnBOOK: LinchpinBOOK: TribesBOOK: Purple CowBOOK: The DipBOOK: Watcha Gonna Do With That Duck?BOOK: Permission MarketingBOOK: Black SwanBOOK: AntifragileBOOK: Survival Is Not EnoughThe theme song “Into the Arena” is written and produced by Chris Sernel. You can find it on SoundcloudConnect with AnthonyWebsite: www.TheSalesBlog.comYoutube: Plus: you can use to share this episodeIf you have customer attraction you don’t need to raise capital and technology will never be an issueClick To TweetFailure isn’t that big of a deal, so don’t take yourself so seriously. If you are honest and do good work, you’ll get another chance ~ Seth GodinClick To TweetSubscribe toIn the ArenaApple PodcastsGoogle PodcastsAndroidby EmailRSSOr subscribe with your favorite app by using the address below”Podcast Essential Reading! Get my first book: The Only Sale Guide You’ll Ever Need “The USA Today bestseller by the star sales speaker and author of The Sales Blog that reveals how all salespeople can attain huge sales success through strategies backed by extensive research and experience.” Buy Nowlast_img read more

Brothers arrested in Gujarat for alleged IS links

first_imgGujarat’s Anti Terrorist Squad (ATS) has arrested two persons, Waseem and Naeem Ramodiya, claiming they are associated with the Islamic State (IS) group and were on a mission to carry out “serial blasts to target some religious place in the State.”While Waseem was arrested from Rajkot, his brother was arrested from Bhavnagar.According to ATS Deputy Superintendent of Police (DSP) K.K. Patel, the two were under the squad’s watch for more than a year. He claimed that they were in contact with IS operatives overseas through social media platforms like Twitter, Facebook and Telegram, an encrypted messaging app.Sensitive material seizedThe police also recovered “bomb-making material” such as gun powder, jihadi literature, masks and several mobile phones from them.“They were prepared with all material to make bombs and planned to carry out blasts at religious places in the next few days,” Mr. Patel said, adding the prompt action by the police averted a major putative terror attack in the State.According to the family details of the duo, they are sons of Rajkot based Arif Ramodia, a domestic cricket umpire, who recently retired from the Saurashtra University.First such arrest in GujaratThe police have registered a case and investigation is on. “We are investigating how they established links with the IS and who helped them in the process,” another senior official of the ATS said. This is likely to be Gujarat’s first such arrest of people suspected to be linked with the international terror outfit, which has often vowed to expand its fight to India but has so far not met with any success.However, there have been a few stray arrests made by the authorities at several places in the country, including a five-men module in Hyderabad that planned to attack a local police station.last_img read more

For Bulls, blockbuster trade is all about direction

first_imgThey are counting on LaVine to work his way back from a torn ACL in his left knee, for Dunn to improve on a disappointing rookie season after being drafted No. 5 overall and for the 7-foot Markkanen to make a smooth transition to the NBA with his sweet shot.“I’m feeling really good,” said LaVine, who was averaging 18.9 points when he was injured in February. “I’m attacking this injury like I do everything in life, working my butt off for it every day, in the gym and doing as much as possible. There’s always that base timeline of 9-12 months with it. I feel like with my ability I’m able to come back early. But I really haven’t set a timetable for that. I’m very confident that I’ll come back better.”Agent Bill Duffy said LaVine is “definitely ahead of schedule” and called him the “consummate workaholic.”“But on the other hand, you’ve got to kind of mitigate his progress because he’s eager to be at the (practice) facility,” he added. “We’re going to have to put the brakes on at some point.”Dunn, meanwhile, acknowledged a difficult rookie season under coach Tom Thibodeau. He didn’t live up to the hype that accompanied him from Providence. He gets another chance with the Bulls, who tried getting him and LaVine a year ago for Butler.Dunn described last season as a “roller coaster ride.” But he also credited Thibodeau, the former Bulls coach.“He helped me become a professional,” Dunn said. “He loves players that love to work. He made sure all his guys are always in the gym working hard, attacking every day, trying to improve each day. Just keep learning the game. Tom really helped me be a pro.”Markkanen, who shot 49.2 percent from the field and 42.3 from 3-point range in his lone season at Arizona, sees his offense translating to the NBA. His defense needs work.“I’m going to work on that,” he said. “I know I’m going to get better when I put the work in.” What ‘missteps’? Cayetano to unmask people behind ‘smear campaign’ vs him, SEA Games PBA Finals ‘far from over,’ says Beermen’s Austria Sports Related Videospowered by AdSparcRead Next Lacson: SEA Games fund put in foundation like ‘Napoles case’ Chicago Bulls seventh overall draft pick Lauri Markkanen, left, Kris Dunn, center, and Zach Lavine, pose for a photo at the NBA basketball team’s training facility, Tuesday, June 27, 2017, in Chicago. Dunn and Levine was acquired by the Bulls from the Minnesota Timberwolves in exchange for Jimmy Butler and this year’s No. 16th overall pick, Justin Patton. (AP Photo/G-Jun Yam)CHICAGO — The Chicago Bulls set a clear direction by trading All-Star Jimmy Butler to the Minnesota Timberwolves on draft night last week.The Bulls had plenty of people talking after they traded one of the NBA’s top two-way players for Zach LaVine, Kris Dunn and No. 7 overall pick Lauri Markkanen, three newcomers who were introduced at a news conference on Tuesday.ADVERTISEMENT LATEST STORIES Pagasa: Kammuri now a typhoon, may enter PAR by weekend 1 dead in Cavite blast, fire Heart Evangelista admits she’s pregnant… with chicken “I’m excited about what the environment in this building is going to be like going forward,” Paxson said. “I’m not worried about perception. We understand this could take time, it’s a process. But as long as these kids can play hard and compete our fans will appreciate them, and we’ll get better.”There was plenty of room for the Bulls to improve after last season.They made the playoffs on a tiebreaker after missing out the previous season, then put up a fight against Boston before bowing out in the first round.Only once since the Michael Jordan era has Chicago advanced to the Eastern Conference finals, losing to LeBron James and the Miami Heat in 2011. Derrick Rose tore the ACL in his left knee in the playoff opener against Philadelphia the following year, and the Bulls haven’t been a serious championship threat since then.The Bulls sorely needed more shooting and athleticism if Hoiberg’s offense was going to work the way they hoped, and they believe they are on their way.ADVERTISEMENT MOST READ WATCH: Firefighters rescue baby seal found in parking garage Robredo: True leaders perform well despite having ‘uninspiring’ boss PLAY LIST 02:49Robredo: True leaders perform well despite having ‘uninspiring’ boss02:42PH underwater hockey team aims to make waves in SEA Games01:44Philippines marks anniversary of massacre with calls for justice01:19Fire erupts in Barangay Tatalon in Quezon City01:07Trump talks impeachment while meeting NCAA athletes02:49World-class track facilities installed at NCC for SEA Games View comments World’s 50 Best Restaurants launches new drinking and dining guide Don’t miss out on the latest news and information. Bulls vice president of basketball operations John Paxson said debating which team got the better end of the deal is “the wrong way to look at it” at the moment.“We’ve defined our direction,” he said. “We made the playoffs (eight of nine) years. Wasn’t good enough. We have to now reset what we’re about.”FEATURED STORIESSPORTSSEA Games: Biñan football stadium stands out in preparedness, completionSPORTSPrivate companies step in to help SEA Games hostingSPORTSMalditas save PH from shutoutThe Bulls added three players to the mix who are 23 or younger. They believe they are starting to build a team that fits coach Fred Hoiberg’s pace-and-space offensive system as he heads into his third season.They see a promising core that can help lay the foundation for bigger things. And they’re not too concerned about what others think.last_img read more

Government Partners With UNDP to Implement Early Warning Systems

first_imgAs part of the mitigation efforts to strengthen disaster resilience in vulnerable communities, the Government is partnering with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) to implement early warning systems in four parishes.Local Government and Community Development Minister, Hon. Desmond McKenzie, said the initiative will be undertaken in St. Catherine, St. Mary, Portland and St. Thomas.The US$1-million project is slated to come on stream in early 2019, the Minister said, as he launched the national hurricane preparedness campaign at Jamaica House, recently.“We’re going to be the third country outside of Cuba and the Dominican Republic that will benefit from this programme with the UNDP, where they will help us to create a National Climate Information and Early Warning Service for Disaster Risk Reduction,” he said.The early warning system will serve as a means of informing citizens in vulnerable areas before a disaster strikes.last_img read more

How Our 2017 MLB Predictions Work

4/26/1972Tom SeaverMets67.3+72.8 7/19/1995Greg MadduxBraves71.8+67.3 10/5/2004Johan SantanaTwins67.6+66.9 10/8/1998Kevin BrownPadres67.4+65.4 4/7/2002Curt SchillingDiamondbacks69.1+64.3 5/16/2000Randy JohnsonDiamondbacks71.8+83.3 5/25/1969Bob GibsonCardinals68.6+76.6 7/13/1915Pete AlexanderPhillies67.7+64.7 Pitchers in the table above are listed only once, at their absolute peak. The only new entrant from last year is Clayton Kershaw.In addition to scores for each pitcher, we maintain a pitching score for every team — these are based on the game scores of every starting pitcher on that team. Each pitcher’s Elo adjustment is relative to his team’s pitching score; pitchers above the team average give the team a bonus when they start, and pitchers below the team average give the team a penalty. Note that in the table above, one pitcher may have a higher overall score than another pitcher but a smaller Elo adjustment; this generally means that his team had a better rotation or that he started more games and his game scores contributed more to the team’s overall average.These are the top 2017 pitchers, according to our pitcher scores: Clayton KershawDodgers65.1+50 5/6/1986Dwight GoodenMets68.5+74.4 6/13/1932Lefty GroveAthletics66.9+64.1 8/4/1940Bob FellerIndians68.4+64.7 6/24/1977Frank TananaAngels68.4+72.2 Justin VerlanderTigers62.3+47 Since starting pitcher bonuses from the two teams are additive, they cancel each other out when two top pitchers face each other and can be quite large when a strong pitcher faces a weak pitcher. The biggest mismatch of all time according to our pitcher scores was a 137-point Elo swing back in 1997, when Randy Johnson (+87) faced Ricky Bones (-50).Our 2017 preseason team ratings are a blend of our 2016 end-of-season ratings (reverted to the mean by one-third) and three projection systems (PECOTA, FanGraphs and Davenport). Our preseason team pitcher scores use our 2016 end-of-season pitcher scores combined with projected starts from the same three projection systems.We use Monte Carlo simulations to play out the season thousands of times to see how often each team makes the playoffs or wins the World Series. As with our other forecasts, we run simulations “hot,” meaning that a team’s rating changes within each simulation based on simulated results, including the bonus for playoff wins. For games where a starting pitcher is not yet known, we assume a pitcher of average strength will play.Our Complete History Of MLB uses a slightly simplified Elo system that doesn’t take pitchers, travel or rest into account.6This means that the ratings in our Complete History interactive won’t always match the ratings in our 2017 MLB Predictions, but using separate rating systems gives us the flexibility to alter our forecast methodology from year to year but keep our Elo history interactives unchanged. Like the forecast, it will update after each game.It’s early, but the Cubs are looking pretty good again. We’re looking forward to the rest of the season and hope you’ll follow along with us. 10/14/1965Sandy KoufaxDodgers68.1+64.4 Kyle HendricksCubs60.2+24 10/7/2015Jake ArrietaCubs68.3+63.4 Chris SaleRed Sox58.9+22 5/18/1987Mike ScottAstros66.9+61.4 This methodology article is for an old version of our MLB forecast. See how our latest MLB predictions work.Editor’s note: This article is an adapted version of one we published last year about how our MLB predictions work.FiveThirtyEight is again publishing a season’s worth of MLB win predictions, using our baseball Elo. The predictions preview upcoming games and show the chances that each team will make the playoffs and that it’ll win the World Series. We’ll also be updating our Complete History Of MLB feature throughout the season, which charts the successes and failures of every franchise throughout history. Here’s how both work.Thanks to Retrosheet, we’ve collected game results and box scores back to 1871 and used them to create an Elo-based rating system and predictive model for baseball that incorporates home-field advantage, margin of victory, travel, rest and — most importantly — starting pitchers. The ratings are also adjusted for park and era effects and account for the fact that favorites are more likely to win in the postseason than in the regular season.Elo is a simple but elegant system that can be tuned and customized endlessly to incorporate available data. In our baseball Elo system, each team has a rating (the average is about 1500), and after every game, the winning team gains some Elo points while the losing team loses the same number of points. The number of points exchanged is based on the chances our model gave each team to win the game and the margin of victory; a win by a big underdog results in a bigger exchange of Elo points than a win by a favorite, and the larger the margin of victory, the larger the exchange.Before every game, we also adjust each team’s rating based on whether it has home-field advantage, how far it’s traveled to the game, how many days of rest it’s had and which pitcher is slated to start. DATENAMETEAMPITCHER SCORETEAM RATING ADJ. 9/15/1978Ron GuidryYankees66.9+62.4 Sources: Retrosheet and ESPN 6/21/2016Clayton KershawDodgers69.6+77.5 7/28/1997Roger ClemensBlue Jays70.6+75.3 The pitcher score is a running average of a pitcher’s individual game scores.Sources: Retrosheet and ESPN Starting pitcher adjustments can have a substantial impact on pre-game team ratings and win probabilities. For example, in June of 2000, Pedro Martinez was worth about 109 Elo points to the Red Sox each time he started, which is the equivalent of a 15 percent boost to their chances of winning the game.3Starting pitcher adjustments give our model about a 1 percentage point improvement in the percentage of games correctly “called” and a corresponding improvement in mean squared error. This means Martinez was worth 109 points more than the average starting pitcher on his team (or even a bit more, since his starts were already incorporated into the team’s overall rating).To generate these pitcher adjustments, we’re using a version of Bill James’s game scores proposed by Tangotiger (and slightly modified by us) to isolate pitching performances. After each game, the starting pitcher’s game score is calculated as:47.4 + 1.5*outs + strikeouts – 2*walks – 2*hits – 3*runs – 4*homerunsWe maintain a running average of these game scores for each pitcher to produce his overall pitcher score.4Just like the margin of victory modifier, game scores are normalized for eras and stadiums so pitchers are directly comparable. They’re also adjusted to take the opposing team’s offensive strength into account. Here’s a list of the pitchers with the highest peak scores in history, the dates when they peaked and their corresponding Elo bonus:5A pitcher’s Elo bonus is calculated with 4.7*(pitcher_score – team_pitching_score). 5/5/1929Dazzy VanceRobins69.7+76.3 All-time pitcher peaks, based on pitcher score Jon LesterCubs61.4+29 Corey KluberIndians61.0+36 Home-field advantage is worth 24 Elo points in our model, and travel and rest adjustments are worth up to about 5 points each1The travel adjustment is calculated as (-MILES_TRAVELED^(1/3))*0.31, and the rest adjustment is DAYS_REST*2.3.; these three components are combined into the “Adjust for home field, travel and rest” section in the image above.2Here are some more of our baseball Elo parameters:The general K factor is 4, though it’s 6 for postseason games and also is adjusted based on margin of victory.The difference in rating between two teams is multiplied by 4/3 for postseason games.Expected margins of victory are calculated with elo_diff^3*5.46554876e-08 + elo_diff^2*8.96073139e-06 + elo_diff*2.44895265e-03 + BASE (BASE is dependent on the year and stadium the game is played in but has an average of about 3.4).The actual margin of victory in each game is also adjusted for era/stadium effects and then flattened a bit with ((abs(margin_adj) + 1)^0.7)*1.41.Thus, the whole Elo shift is (outcome – winprob) * (adjusted_margin / expected_margin) * (6 if postseason else 4). 4/30/1980J.R. RichardAstros67.7+67.1 Johnny CuetoGiants58.8+23 NAMETEAMPITCHER SCORETEAM RATING ADJ. Madison BumgarnerGiants58.9+23 Max ScherzerNationals60.6+33 Top 2017 starters by pitcher score 6/8/2000Pedro MartinezRed Sox78.0+108.6 read more

Set out for a musical dream

first_imgWhen emotions get the better of you, setting you free, without the shackles of reaching a predetermined destination, then love for music is born. To sense music that just encapsulates all of it. To attend an ongoing musical evolution, make a dash to see Isaac Delusion performing live in Delhi.The band is apart, it wanders while maintaining its identity – you can feel the ‘label with the elephant’ philosophy floating around. A year ago, the band barely existed, it’s an ongoing musical evolution, our three mysterious birds are still exploring. This nouveau rising  french band of three travelled to New York, Berlin, Barcelona and Warsaw on their musical expedition before landing here in Delhi. Their music is all whimsical and elusive. While their first release was about sun at midnight, the second one is about dawn.DETAILAt: Alliance FrancaiseWhen: 24 april, 7 pmlast_img read more